Climate Council warns Ireland must act urgently or risk ‘compliance costs’ of €8bn for exceeding carbon budget

Ireland’s recent progress in cutting carbon emissions is welcome but insufficient and raises the likelihood of EU fines in the order of €8 billion, the Climate Change Advisory Council has warned the Government.
While a fall in emissions last year has brought Ireland closer to achieving its first carbon budget up to 2025, “lack of significant progress makes it unlikely Ireland will meet its second carbon budget in the period 2026-2030″, the council’s latest analysis concludes.
Carbon budgets are legally-enforced limits on carbon that can be emitted across every sector of the economy; especially in power generation, transport and agriculture. The compliance costs – equivalent to fines – for failing to meet EU targets are projected to exceed €8 billion by the end of the decade in certain scenarios, it adds.
In the final part of its annual review, issued on Wednesday, the independent advisory body issues urgent cross-sector recommendations based on its assessment of current and projected emissions.
The council calls for “the end of Ireland’s reliance on harmful, expensive and unsustainable fossil fuels. This is a crucial and urgent transformational action for Ireland and must be seen as a priority across all sectors”.
The Government should stop subsidising fossil fuel usage and increase funding to protect the most vulnerable people and communities and accelerate “rapid uptake of low-carbon technologies”.
To enable the transition to clean energy, the revised national planning framework must be implemented swiftly and in full, it says. “The current draft should be further strengthened to support the expansion of wind and solar roll-out to meet Ireland’s growing demand for electricity.”
New housing and developments must be located and supported by public transport services in a way that reduces emissions, while the Government needs to complete its review of land use, the assessment adds.
“This should set out a detailed implementation plan to enable the necessary reduction in agriculture emissions and deliver the diverse range of bioeconomy and ecosystem services required to maintain a sustainable, resilient and biodiversity rich economy,” it says.
Council chair Marie Donnelly said that while progress has been made in reducing Ireland’s emissions, it is not enough to meet our national and EU climate targets. “Without immediate and decisive action, the cost of failing to meet EU targets could exceed €8 billion for the period up to 2030,” she said.
“However, there is an opportunity to build on the good work that has been done, with targeted supports in place for households and businesses, which will make heat pumps and EVs more accessible, and further delivering on the retrofit of our housing stock, reducing our reliance on imported and expensive fossil fuels.”
This was dependent on delivery of an effective and fit-for-purpose planning system as a key Government priority, Ms Donnelly said. “This must support the generation of our own onshore wind and solar electricity and ensure housing developments are located close to services and public transport, while bringing vacant and derelict housing back into use.
Not meeting our commitments will take crucial funds away from essential services, she added. “It is better to make the investments now for households, communities and businesses, rather than paying a large fine in a few years,” Ms Donnelly said.
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There is growing concern about the availability of carbon credits required to demonstrate compliance, which will have to be purchased, the council says – given other EU member states are also having difficulties meeting their targets.
The council welcomes the new EU nature restoration law. “Reaching the mandated restoration targets within a well-designed and well-implemented national restoration plan for nature will play a key role in achieving climate and biodiversity objectives by 2050,” it adds.